April 10, 2008

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Puerto Rico, Obama and Clinton

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via TalkLeft.)

By Big Tent Democrat

There are some interesting developments in Puerto Rico, One of which is a poll Jeralyn writes about. But I think more interesting is the shifting alignments on the island. The most significant development was the endorsement of Barack Obama by Pedro Pierluisi, the Statehood Party’s (PNP) candidate for Resident Commissioner in the upcoming November election in Puerto Rico. This could be quite a coup for Obama.

Why does this endorsement matter? I think the endorsement COULD be decisive in Puerto Rico if it signals that the Statehood Party machinery will be mobilized in favor of Obama. At the least, it is clear that it likely will not be completely mobilized for Hillary Clinton. And that is certainly a blow to her.

More . . .

The key to all of this may be the attitude of the Statehood Party’s candidate for Governor, Luis Fortuno, a Republican who has endorsed John McCain. Will he get involved? Or will he permit Pierluisi to activate the Statehood Party machinery? Fortuno is the prohibitive favorite to win the next election (the Commonwealth Party incumbent, Anibal Acevedo Vila, is under indictment. Acevedo Vila has endorsed Obama.) He appears to be headed towards being the undisputed political power on the Island. Will he put a thumb on the scale, for either Obama or Clinton, inside the Statehood Party? It will be interesting to watch what he does. But there is another interesting aspect to the Puerto Rico contest.

Puerto Rico matters more to Hillary of course, but it also places Obama in an interesting dilemma. Will Obama argue that Puerto Rico does not matter? That the popular vote is irrelevant? Consider this possible scenario for the final ten days of May. Obama has won North Carolina but lost PA, WV, KY and IN. He holds a solid lead in pledged delegates but his popular vote lead is then precarious.

Will Obama and/or his surrogates argue that Puerto Rico should not matter? That Puerto Rico is not a state therefore its votes should not count to the popular vote? Will the Obama camp be trying to shut down the contest BEFORE Puerto Rico? How will that play there?

An interesting question I think.

Î

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NY Up for Grabs?

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Balloon Juice.)

A new Marist poll has McCain/Rice beating any combination of Clinton/Obama. In New York. I don’t trust the results of this holding up in November, nor do I think there is the slightest chance the GOP will put Rice on the ticket. I think Rice is far too close to Bush, and the Republicans will want to make a clean break with the Bush administration, especially her signature failure of managing Iraq prior to McCain’s surge strategy. He will do all he can to paint Iraq as a strategic failure led by Republicans that ignored his advice early on. That narrative disappears if Rice is by his side while he makes it.

On top of that, putting Rice on the GOP ticket might actually cause the Solid South vote to waver. Condi and McCain do nothing to reassure the arch conservatives who want to shut down the border and remove affirmative action. I also think putting a single black female on the ticket will push a few voters who can’t stand at least one of those categories away from the ticket.

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Richard Belzer To Fill In During Randi Rhodes’ Air America Time Slot

April 10, 2008 in Mainstream Media by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via The Huffington Post | Full News Feed.)

Richard Belzer will fill Randi Rhodes’ 3pm-6pm time slot on Air America all next week, the Huffington Post has learned. Belzer is perhaps best known for his role on “Law & Order,” where he plays Det. John Munch, but he is also a stand-up comedian as well as a Huffington Post blogger.

Developing…

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Obama to receive numerous PA endorsements today

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Technorati.)

Philly.com is reporting that a bevy of city and state elected officials - specifically, 6 Philadelphia City Council members, 3 state representatives, and state senators Shirley Kitchen and Vincent Hughes - are expected to endorse Barack Obama for president at the Philadelphia City Hall today. The state’s governor and the mayor of Philly are both Clinton supporters, so the Democratic party in PA is clearly not of one mind on the presidential race. Obama supporters seem to anticipate that the contest will go past the April 22 Pennsylvania primary: Cinco de Mayo fund-raisers are already in place on the Obama campaign site.

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Clinton, Obama Purge Delegate Lists in California

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Taegan Goddard’s Politica Wire.)

The Obama and Clinton campaigns “are purging potential California delegates to ensure that only their loyalists vote at the national convention that will crown one of them as the Democratic presidential nominee,” according to the Associated Press.

“Driven by fears that some prospective delegates might be concealing their true allegiances, the campaigns are searching campaign finance data, scouring the Internet and making telephone calls to weed out dubious candidates. Neither side wants to elect a delegate who might really support their rival, or other candidate.”

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McCain pulled two ways on foreign policy

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Foreign Policy, Republicans by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via msnbc.com.)

Senator John McCain has long made his decades of experience in foreign policy and national security the centerpiece of his political identity, and suggests he would bring to the White House a fully formed view of the world.

But now one component of the fractious Republican Party foreign policy establishment — the so-called pragmatists, some of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake — is expressing concern that Mr. McCain might be coming under increased influence from a competing camp, the neoconservatives, whose thinking dominated President Bush’s first term and played a pivotal role in building the case for war.

The concerns have emerged in the weeks since Mr. McCain became his party’s presumptive nominee and began more formally assembling a list of foreign policy advisers. Among those on the list are several prominent neoconservatives, including Robert Kagan, an author who helped write much of the foreign policy speech that Mr. McCain delivered in Los Angeles on March 26, in which he described himself as “a realistic idealist.” Others include the security analyst Max Boot and a former United Nations ambassador, John R. Bolton.

Full story here.

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Powell Praises Obama, Fears Afghanistan

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats, Foreign Policy, National Security, Republicans by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via ABC News.)

Retired Gen. Colin Powell insists he hasn’t yet decided who he’ll back in the 2008 presidential election.

“I’m looking at all three candidates,” Powell said in an exclusive interview with Diane Sawyer for Thursday’s “Good Morning America” on ABC. “I know them all very, very well. I consider myself a friend of each and every one of them. And I have not decided who I will vote for yet.”

Powell, who served as President Bush’s first secretary of state, is a Republican, but that apparently is not enough to sway him toward Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the GOP’s presumptive nominee.

McCain has staked much of his presidential prospects on the success of the surge strategy in Iraq, a subject of great debate in Washington this week as Gen. David Petraeus took his case to Capitol Hill.

“The United States Armed Forces are very, very stretched. It appears that after the surge is over, we’re going to go down to 140,000 troops in Iraq. That’s 10,000 more than we had before the surge,” Powell observed, reacting to the testimony Petraeus delivered over two days.

Full story ABC Newshere.

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IA Poll: Clinton Stabilizes in Pennsylvania

April 10, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire.)

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 38%.

Said pollster Matt Towery: “Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating. My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it’s tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by most - a Clinton lead.”

Complete survey results are available.

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Partisan tangle over trade pact with Columbia

April 10, 2008 in Democrats, Executive Branch, House of Representatives, Republicans by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via NY Times.)

A drive by President Bush to win passage of a modest trade deal with Colombia erupted Wednesday into an angry partisan confrontation between the White House and House Democrats, with both sides using trade as a surrogate for an election-year battle over jobs, national security and the sinking economy.

The House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, took the White House by surprise when she announced plans Wednesday to block a vote on the Colombia accord. The move effectively holds the measure hostage until Mr. Bush agrees to more economic relief for Americans.

Ms. Pelosi’s action would scrap House rules that require a vote within 90 days of the measure’s being submitted by the president. It came only two days after Mr. Bush’s effort to gain the upper hand by sending the Colombia bill to Congress with the understanding that a vote would be required this year.

At stake for the Bush administration and Republicans is a deal that business leaders have pushed for and that would provide support for a crucial American ally. Democrats, meanwhile, feel caught between organized labor, which opposes the deal and wants Colombia to do more to stop killings of union leaders, and business groups, many of which donate to Democratic campaigns.

Hastily assembling at the White House, a team of cabinet members led by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. assailed Ms. Pelosi’s move as damaging ties to Colombia, encouraging anti-American forces in the region and jeopardizing the economy.

Full story here.

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Al-Sadr threatens to end cease-fire

April 10, 2008 in Foreign Policy by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Yahoo! News.)

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr raised the stakes Tuesday in his showdown with government, threatening to end formally a seven-month cease-fire unless authorities stop attacks on his followers in Baghdad.

Formally ending the cease-fire could trigger renewed fighting throughout southern Iraq, nine days after a deal brokered in Iran calmed the region.

But there was no letup in the clashes in the capital Tuesday, as American and Iraqi soldiers stepped up the pressure against Shiite militants in their Sadr City stronghold of northeast Baghdad. U.S. troops fired missiles at three mortar positions, killing 12 militants, the American command said. Iraqi police and hospitals said 14 people were killed and 37 wounded in Sadr City.

Two more U.S. troops were killed in the Baghdad fighting, the U.S. command announced. At least 12 American service members have died in Iraq since Sunday. Also Tuesday, rockets or mortar shells also slammed into the U.S.-protected Green Zone, but the U.S. Embassy said there were no casualties.

The bloodshed served as stark reminders of Iraq’s continuing instability five years after U.S. troops swept into Baghdad and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime on April 9, 2003. The euphoria of victory was soon dissipated — first by a Sunni insurgency, then Sunni-Shiite slaughter and now battles against Shiite militiamen.

Full story here.

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