Puerto Rico, Obama and Clinton

(Via TalkLeft.)

By Big Tent Democrat

There are some interesting developments in Puerto Rico, One of which is a poll Jeralyn writes about. But I think more interesting is the shifting alignments on the island. The most significant development was the endorsement of Barack Obama by Pedro Pierluisi, the Statehood Party’s (PNP) candidate for Resident Commissioner in the upcoming November election in Puerto Rico. This could be quite a coup for Obama.

Why does this endorsement matter? I think the endorsement COULD be decisive in Puerto Rico if it signals that the Statehood Party machinery will be mobilized in favor of Obama. At the least, it is clear that it likely will not be completely mobilized for Hillary Clinton. And that is certainly a blow to her.

More . . .

The key to all of this may be the attitude of the Statehood Party’s candidate for Governor, Luis Fortuno, a Republican who has endorsed John McCain. Will he get involved? Or will he permit Pierluisi to activate the Statehood Party machinery? Fortuno is the prohibitive favorite to win the next election (the Commonwealth Party incumbent, Anibal Acevedo Vila, is under indictment. Acevedo Vila has endorsed Obama.) He appears to be headed towards being the undisputed political power on the Island. Will he put a thumb on the scale, for either Obama or Clinton, inside the Statehood Party? It will be interesting to watch what he does. But there is another interesting aspect to the Puerto Rico contest.

Puerto Rico matters more to Hillary of course, but it also places Obama in an interesting dilemma. Will Obama argue that Puerto Rico does not matter? That the popular vote is irrelevant? Consider this possible scenario for the final ten days of May. Obama has won North Carolina but lost PA, WV, KY and IN. He holds a solid lead in pledged delegates but his popular vote lead is then precarious.

Will Obama and/or his surrogates argue that Puerto Rico should not matter? That Puerto Rico is not a state therefore its votes should not count to the popular vote? Will the Obama camp be trying to shut down the contest BEFORE Puerto Rico? How will that play there?

An interesting question I think.

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