May 6, 2008

(Via Open Left.)

On Friday I wrote about Clinton’s ability to consistently win among late deciders. The last SUSA polling from Indiana suggests the pattern may be repeating in Indiana.

The SUSA Indiana poll has Clinton up 54-42. If you look at the recent polling in Indiana, what becomes apparent is most of the volatility is around Clinton’s number. Clinton ranges from a low of 42 (Zogby) to a high of 54 (SUSA). Obama, in contrast, ranges only between 42 (SUSA) and 46 (PPP). This repeats the pattern in Ohio where Clinton ranged in final polling from 56 to 44, but Obama ranged in all but one poll from 42 to 44 and in Pennsylvania where Clinton ranged between 46 and 54 while Obama polled within a narrower range (in most cases between 42 and 44.

This polling suggests that the undecided in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania actually at some level lean to Clinton, something that the exit polling seems to confirm.

This suggests Clinton is likely to win by at least 10 in Indiana. In fact, I would not rule out a Clinton win of 15 or more.

As I also wrote last Friday, late deciders in southern states have broken for Obama and not Clinton. The intuition here is that in places like Indiana the undecided tend to be white and lower class (and break for Clinton) while in the South the undecided tend to be African American (and break for Obama).

Full story here.

(Via CBS News.)

If Hillary Rodham Clinton wins in either Indiana or North Carolina Tuesday, the primary election terrain suddenly begins to look more favorable to her than at any other point since Super Tuesday Feb. 5.

For the first time since February, she will enter a month-long stretch of states where a variety of factors leave her well-positioned to win or compete in most of them.

None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, the nominating events where Barack Obama’s campaign’s organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama’s strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent - a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older - a group Clinton runs well with.

Regardless of her performance against Barack Obama in the six remaining primaries, the delegate math remains daunting for Clinton. But if her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday’s primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3.

“After Tuesday, most of the upcoming states are really good states for her,” said Tad Devine, a strategist for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry. “She’s got some good real estate in front of her.”

(Via ABC News.)

“Today is likely to be Groundhog Day. It’s most likely to be six more weeks [of campaigning] because we’re going to see a split,” said ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America”.

Stephanopoulos told “GMA” Tuesday that Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., tried to downplay expectations.

Obama’s supporters suggested to Stephanopoulos that Clinton would win in Indiana by as much as eight points, and Clinton’s camp hinted that Obama would win by as much as 10 points in North Carolina.

If either of those margins are trimmed, the loser will likely claim some sort of upset victory.