Clinton’s Fate Hangs In The Balance

(Via CBS News.)

If Hillary Rodham Clinton wins in either Indiana or North Carolina Tuesday, the primary election terrain suddenly begins to look more favorable to her than at any other point since Super Tuesday Feb. 5.

For the first time since February, she will enter a month-long stretch of states where a variety of factors leave her well-positioned to win or compete in most of them.

None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, the nominating events where Barack Obama’s campaign’s organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama’s strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent - a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older - a group Clinton runs well with.

Regardless of her performance against Barack Obama in the six remaining primaries, the delegate math remains daunting for Clinton. But if her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday’s primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3.

“After Tuesday, most of the upcoming states are really good states for her,” said Tad Devine, a strategist for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry. “She’s got some good real estate in front of her.”