May 7, 2008

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Reality Check

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

By way of demonstrating the impossibility of Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, here’s a scenario for the remaining contests.

West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon: We’ll put Clinton in the win column 70/30.
Montana, South Dakota: We’ll project Clinton 52/48.
Puerto Rico: We’ll write in Clinton for a 60/40 win.
Superdelegates: Clinton picks up 64% of all remaining.

End Totals:
Clinton, 1993
Obama, 2026

The margins in WV, KY and OR are larger than anyone is projecting. The wins in MT and SD would be huge and entirely unexpected. And, Obama has been picking up superdelegates in nearly inverse numbers of this projection since February. So, under the worst case (Clinton wins all remaining primaries and a majority of undeclared supers), Obama still reaches the 2025 magic number.

In the real world, this thing is over.

[Calculations based on CNN's Delegate Calculator.]

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Is Clinton the Last to Know It’s Over?

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via The American Prospect.)

Barack Obama coupled a solid, double-digit win in North Carolina with a narrow defeat in Indiana to stall the momentum Hillary Clinton showed in the 11 weeks since Obama’s last significant win. “We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be,” NBC’s Tim Russert declared shortly after midnight, as the late numbers trickling in from Gary-based Lake County in the northwestern corner of Indiana reduced Clinton’s victory margin in the Hoosier State to around 20,000 votes. It is a testament to how much the complex mix of expectations, performance, and spin figure in this contest that a proclamation by the dean of televised punditry matters more than the potential endorsements of the nearly 300 undeclared Democratic superdelegates.

Full story here.

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Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million last month

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via AmericaBlog.)

On MSNBC, Clinton spokesperson Howard Wolfson confirmed this loan and added, “I certainly don’t rule out her giving more.” No wonder Hillary said to Bill O’Reilly, “Rich people. God bless us.”

AP just reported, via MSNBC, that Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million last month.

Last night, we wrote about the possibility of another loan based on a report from Ben Smith. She already loaned her campaign $5 million.

Keep in mind that, despite the previous loan, Clinton was in debt at the end of February and at the end of March. And, you know, we kept hearing how much money the Clinton campaign was raking in big bucks through April.

Another huge loan. This is so over.

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Obama Takes Aim at Media Distractions

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats, Mainstream Media by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Firedoglake.)

No matter what happens next, this is exactly what Obama needed to say. The media spent weeks implying, but pretending not to say, that as a black man, Obama may not love his country, sympathizes with violence, is not patriotic and does not understand or relate to ordinary Americans’ concerns and hopes. No credible journalist believe this nonsense, yet MSM pundits like Russert and Matthews wallowed in these false images as though somehow they might be true. As Matthews conceded, Reverend Wright helps their ratings.

Full story here.

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Indiana Proof Of Obama’s Strength

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Newsvine.)

This was the Obama campaign’s opportunity to fall apart. As the media encroached upon his candidacy, savaging it with news cycle after news cycle of Wright’s hateful comments and questions of how it would affect the campaign, They hounded Obama into giving a second speech by Thursday of last week, finally cutting Wright loose for good. Clinton struck not only on the Wright issue but also accusing Obama of being an elitist that was uninterested in helping blue collar voters for declining to put a moratorium on the federal gas tax. Obama was having such a bad week that John McCain finally told reporters he wasn’t interested in discussing the Wright issue.

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Clinton To Huddle With Advisers

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Political Wire.)

Political Wire has learned that Sen. Hillary Clinton is returning to Washington, D.C. today to meet with advisers and discuss the future of her campaign.

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Uncertainties Mark Clinton’s Itinerary

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via New York Times.)

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is bracing for one of the most difficult days of her presidential race on Wednesday, anticipating new pressure to quit the race and facing a set of financial and logistical decisions that will determine just how robust a campaign she can continue to wage against Sen. Barack Obama, according to several advisers and political allies.

And that is only for starters, these people say: After her narrow win in the Indiana primary and steep loss in North Carolina, working off a few hours of sleep, Mrs. Clinton is also bound to think over a question in her own head and to hear it from at least some supporters — should she continue running?

The advisers and allies to Mrs. Clinton said in interviews on Tuesday night that her victory in Indiana — even by less than 2 percentage points — made it less certain that she would withdraw from the race. (Her advisers had said a loss would likely lead her to quit.) Yet these supporters said that North Carolina had come to be seen as a major test in the eyes of the Clintons and their aides, and the severity of her loss to Mr. Obama there was dispiriting.

They were also girding for the possibility of more bad news. Her campaign is deep in debt and believed to be near broke, and her advisers made the unusual move on Tuesday night of refusing to confirm or deny whether Mrs. Clinton had made a loan to her campaign to keep it afloat. She made such a loan, of $5 million, in January, and she pleaded for donations in her televised primary night remarks on Tuesday, even reminding people that they could donate on her Web site.

Full story here.

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Obama pushes ahead in Democratic race

May 7, 2008 in Campaign 2008, Democrats by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via CNN.com.)

Barack Obama edged closer to securing the Democratic nomination in the U.S. presidential election early Wednesday after claiming a decisive victory in North Carolina as his rival Hillary Clinton narrowly took Indiana, vowing to keep her campaign alive.

The latest round in the drawn-out contest to select a challenger to George W. Bush’s likely Republican successor John McCain helped Obama strengthen his lead over Clinton, but failed to strike a final blow against either candidate.

Both Clinton and Obama greeted the results with conciliatory speeches focusing on unity and the race for the White House rather than the divisive attacks on each other that have previously been the hallmark of the campaign.

“Some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election. But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington,” Obama told supporters in Raleigh, North Carolina.

“We can’t afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush’s third term. We need change in America and that is why we will be united in November.”

Full story here.

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Clinton fights on as hopes dwindle

May 7, 2008 in Featured by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via guardian.co.uk.)

Hillary Clinton’s campaign today indicated that she intended to fight on even as her hopes of winning the Democratic presidential nomination dwindled.

Clinton failed to close the gap on Barack Obama in two key primaries last night, winning Indiana by a slim margin - 51% to 49% - but seeing that outweighed by her rival’s 56% to 42% landslide in North Carolina.

Indiana provided an exhilarating finish, with the outcome in doubt almost until the last vote was counted, six hours after polling closed.

Obama had prematurely conceded defeat and Clinton made a victory speech, but her margin continued to shrink as the votes kept coming in.

Clinton had needed to win both North Carolina and Indiana, the last two big states left in the contest, to stand a chance of reining in Obama.

But in a speech in Indianapolis last night, she gave no indication that she was ready to concede, saying: “It is full speed to the White House.”

Clinton’s schedule for today includes a rally in West Virginia, where voters head to the polls next week, and a fundraising event in Washington.

Tomorrow, events are planned in Oregon and South Dakota, which vote on May 20 and June 3.

But with only six primaries left, Obama is within touching distance of securing the Democratic nomination to face the Republican, John McCain, in November’s general election.

Last night, Obama secured a bigger share of the delegates - who will choose the nominee - to add to his already commanding lead.

With 99% of the vote counted in Indiana, Clinton had 638,274 (51%) and Obama 615,862 (49%).

Full story here.

Obama Nearly Clinches the Democratic Nomination

May 7, 2008 in Featured by Tony Steidler-Dennison | No comments

(Via Newsweek Politics.)

Barack Obama not only nearly clinched the Democratic nomination Tuesday night. He also answered a big question about the fall campaign. The glass jaw that Hillary Clinton and John McCain thought they saw turned out to be an illusion. In the jingle of the old Timex watch ads, he took a licking and kept on ticking.

Oh what a difference a week makes. April 28 was only last week but it feels like six months ago. That was the day Obama got hit by a one-two punch. First, his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, dominated the airwaves with his offensive rant. The same day brought news that Hillary had decided to join McCain in calling for a summer gas tax holiday, sure to be popular with voters angry about high costs at the pump.

For the first time since February, Clinton seemed to have a real shot at the nomination. Still reeling from his big loss in Pennsylvania, Obama was battered by charges of elitism and disconnected from a big chunk of the Democratic Party. From bad bowling to “bitter” to arugula-eater to disciple of an America-hater, he seemed to be floundering.

May 6 looked ominous. With African-Americans making up only nine percent of Indiana Democratic voters, Obama was in deep trouble there, behind in the polls and slipping. North Carolina was also headed in the wrong direction, with some surveys showing only a five-point Obama lead. In most earlier primaries, including those he won, Obama slipped further on the last weekend. Even his closest aides thought Indiana and North Carolina would be no different.

Last week, not a soul in politics would have predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 14 points and virtually tie in Indiana. But through a combination of luck and smarts, the campaign ended on the theme that Obama ran on: Old politics vs. new politics.

By conventional standards, Clinton was in the groove, focusing on bread-and-butter issues and pummeling Obama for being out-of-touch with angry motorists. Many pundits reported that “the working girl” was “on fire” and on the move.

Full story here.

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