obama

(Via Firedoglake.)

No matter what happens next, this is exactly what Obama needed to say. The media spent weeks implying, but pretending not to say, that as a black man, Obama may not love his country, sympathizes with violence, is not patriotic and does not understand or relate to ordinary Americans’ concerns and hopes. No credible journalist believe this nonsense, yet MSM pundits like Russert and Matthews wallowed in these false images as though somehow they might be true. As Matthews conceded, Reverend Wright helps their ratings.

Full story here.

(Via Newsvine.)

This was the Obama campaign’s opportunity to fall apart. As the media encroached upon his candidacy, savaging it with news cycle after news cycle of Wright’s hateful comments and questions of how it would affect the campaign, They hounded Obama into giving a second speech by Thursday of last week, finally cutting Wright loose for good. Clinton struck not only on the Wright issue but also accusing Obama of being an elitist that was uninterested in helping blue collar voters for declining to put a moratorium on the federal gas tax. Obama was having such a bad week that John McCain finally told reporters he wasn’t interested in discussing the Wright issue.

(Via CNN.com.)

Barack Obama edged closer to securing the Democratic nomination in the U.S. presidential election early Wednesday after claiming a decisive victory in North Carolina as his rival Hillary Clinton narrowly took Indiana, vowing to keep her campaign alive.

The latest round in the drawn-out contest to select a challenger to George W. Bush’s likely Republican successor John McCain helped Obama strengthen his lead over Clinton, but failed to strike a final blow against either candidate.

Both Clinton and Obama greeted the results with conciliatory speeches focusing on unity and the race for the White House rather than the divisive attacks on each other that have previously been the hallmark of the campaign.

“Some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election. But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington,” Obama told supporters in Raleigh, North Carolina.

“We can’t afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush’s third term. We need change in America and that is why we will be united in November.”

Full story here.

(Via Newsweek Politics.)

Barack Obama not only nearly clinched the Democratic nomination Tuesday night. He also answered a big question about the fall campaign. The glass jaw that Hillary Clinton and John McCain thought they saw turned out to be an illusion. In the jingle of the old Timex watch ads, he took a licking and kept on ticking.

Oh what a difference a week makes. April 28 was only last week but it feels like six months ago. That was the day Obama got hit by a one-two punch. First, his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, dominated the airwaves with his offensive rant. The same day brought news that Hillary had decided to join McCain in calling for a summer gas tax holiday, sure to be popular with voters angry about high costs at the pump.

For the first time since February, Clinton seemed to have a real shot at the nomination. Still reeling from his big loss in Pennsylvania, Obama was battered by charges of elitism and disconnected from a big chunk of the Democratic Party. From bad bowling to “bitter” to arugula-eater to disciple of an America-hater, he seemed to be floundering.

May 6 looked ominous. With African-Americans making up only nine percent of Indiana Democratic voters, Obama was in deep trouble there, behind in the polls and slipping. North Carolina was also headed in the wrong direction, with some surveys showing only a five-point Obama lead. In most earlier primaries, including those he won, Obama slipped further on the last weekend. Even his closest aides thought Indiana and North Carolina would be no different.

Last week, not a soul in politics would have predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 14 points and virtually tie in Indiana. But through a combination of luck and smarts, the campaign ended on the theme that Obama ran on: Old politics vs. new politics.

By conventional standards, Clinton was in the groove, focusing on bread-and-butter issues and pummeling Obama for being out-of-touch with angry motorists. Many pundits reported that “the working girl” was “on fire” and on the move.

Full story here.

(Via Salon News.)

Hillary Clinton is one day and two important primaries closer to oblivion. Her hairbreadth victory here in Indiana coupled with her double-digit defeat in North Carolina on the last big night of the 2008 primary season provided a dreams-deferred, delegate-deficit downturn in her already dispiriting fortunes. Not only is Hillary clinging to the hands of a clock in an old-time Harold Lloyd silent movie, but the clock face has begun to wobble.

Barack Obama — who survived and even prospered after Jeremiah Wright’s jeremiads created the worst week of his political career — felt self-confident enough in his victory speech from Raleigh, N.C., to offer an all-is-forgiven unity message directed at the supporters of his “formidable opponent” who harbor “bruised feelings.” But the most important message of the evening was not embedded in Obama’s words, but buried in the interstices of the exit polls. It was not that Obama did particularly well among lower-income white voters, but that he did well enough to prevent Clinton from mounting a renewed can’t-win-in-November argument.

In North Carolina, Obama swept every economic subgroup, along with 93 percent of the black vote and a healthy 36 percent of the white vote. The verdict from Indiana was more ambiguous, but Obama, often portrayed as an upstairs-downstairs candidate whose coalition seemed based on investment bankers and the inner city, won at least 43 percent support in every income category. (A cautionary note about the invaluable but imperfect exit polls: They are crude instruments that have an addictive power because on Election Night they are essentially the only game in town.)

Full story here.

(Via Informed Comment.)

Barack Obama pulled closer to clinching the nomination last night, widening his lead over Hillary Clinton in voted delegates and in the popular vote. He overwhelmingly took Indianapolis and narrowed her earlier lead to only 2%, about 20,000 votes out of the hundreds of thousands cast. Obama even got 35% of working class whites in Indiana, which suggests that while Clinton is stronger with that constituency, Obama has an appeal there as well. He is clearly raising far more money than she, so voters are voting for him with their pocketbooks.

Full story here.

(Via AmericaBlog.)

This is a huge point. Huge. Earlier today, Hillary’s people tried to argue that even if Obama reaches the 2,025 delegates he needs to become our nominee, Hillary will continue to contest the election until Florida and Michigan are seated. Yeah, only one little problem. NBC’s Chuck Todd, who is brilliant and highly respected on such things, just said that you can give Hillary Florida and Michigan - on her terms - and she still loses the nationwide delegate count and the popular vote. She still loses the nomination.

Full story here.

(Via MyDD.)

The upshot is that there is no way to spin away what happened tonight: Senator Clinton had a really bad night and Senator Obama had a phenomenal one. It’s impossible to overstate the significance of what he accomplished, not only considering what he’s overcome over the past three weeks but also considering how decisively he denied Clinton what she needed to continue to have a credible path to the nomination. To put it plainly, tonight was her final shot and she needed to win Indiana by 8-10% and to lose NC by 1-3%; in other words she needed to do about 10% better in each state than she did in order to keep Michigan and Florida relevant and the popular vote in play for superdelegates. Unfortunately, she was unable to do either. Zogby was right this time and Survey USA…and I…were wrong.

Which leads me to the conclusion, sadly, that I no longer see a real path to victory for Hillary Clinton and I now believe Barack Obama will be the nominee of our party.

Full story here.

(Via Open Left.)

On Friday I wrote about Clinton’s ability to consistently win among late deciders. The last SUSA polling from Indiana suggests the pattern may be repeating in Indiana.

The SUSA Indiana poll has Clinton up 54-42. If you look at the recent polling in Indiana, what becomes apparent is most of the volatility is around Clinton’s number. Clinton ranges from a low of 42 (Zogby) to a high of 54 (SUSA). Obama, in contrast, ranges only between 42 (SUSA) and 46 (PPP). This repeats the pattern in Ohio where Clinton ranged in final polling from 56 to 44, but Obama ranged in all but one poll from 42 to 44 and in Pennsylvania where Clinton ranged between 46 and 54 while Obama polled within a narrower range (in most cases between 42 and 44.

This polling suggests that the undecided in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania actually at some level lean to Clinton, something that the exit polling seems to confirm.

This suggests Clinton is likely to win by at least 10 in Indiana. In fact, I would not rule out a Clinton win of 15 or more.

As I also wrote last Friday, late deciders in southern states have broken for Obama and not Clinton. The intuition here is that in places like Indiana the undecided tend to be white and lower class (and break for Clinton) while in the South the undecided tend to be African American (and break for Obama).

Full story here.

(Via The Indianapolis Star.)

The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March’s special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots — out of 168 cast.

Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties, where fewer Republican voters might impact down-ticket primary races.

At the Broad Ripple center, nearly 400 voters — of 1,800 registered in the two precincts — had turned out in the first few hours of voting. Among them was Meghan Ward-Bopp, 24, who went against family tradition and asked for Democratic ballot so she could vote for Barack Obama; she plans to vote for Republican John McCain in November.

“I’m a hardcore Republican,” she said, “but it’s about who I wanted in second place in case McCain doesn’t make it. … I don’t like the way this country’s been run in the last 20 years. I’m sick of the dynasty (of two families) that’s been running things.”

Ward-Bopp voted for the Democrat she liked, but Jim Adams, 36, voted for Hillary Clinton to keep the race going beyond Indiana. He’s a McCain backer and enjoys watching the Democrats fight.

“In the end, I think McCain is going to win,” Adams said, and then referred to controversial statements by Bill Clinton and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s pastor. “Bill can’t keep his mouth shut, and the reverend can’t keep his mouth shut.”

Full story here.