primaries

(Via Political Wire.)

A Zogby tracking poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Hillary Clinton “had a good day” following a contentious debate on Wednesday night and now holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Sen. Barack Obama — just inside the poll’s 4.1 point margin of error.

Key finding: “There was a shift in the genders. Among men, Clinton made up seven points in the last 24 hours against Obama, who still holds a 49% to 41% edge. But Obama also made up a little ground among women, where Clinton now leads by 13 points, down from 15% in yesterday’s tracking poll.”

(Via The Swamp.)

Tonight, they will face off.

On the day of the one televised debate between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, the candidates also are delivering their own televised messages to voters attempting to discern which one of these Democrats really is in touch with their goals for America.

They play off of Obama’s comments about the bitterness of working-class voters, with Clinton’s ad claiming that Obama is out of touch — an ad that employs at least one offended voter who isn’t really registered to vote in Pennsylvania, as the Morning Call’s Josh Drobnyk has reported here in the Swamp today.

Obama responds by accusing Clinton of playing the “politics of division.”

It’s a debate that certainly will play out live tonight, at the National Constitution Center, in Philadelphia. ABC News will run and air the debate, the first one since Feb. 26 in Ohio and last one before the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday. ABC’s Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos will moderate the debate, running from 8 to 10 pm EDT.

Full story here.

(Via Los Angeles Times.)

YOU think Pennsylvania is close? The gap between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton in the race for Hollywood dollars makes the contest for the Keystone State look like a walk in the park.

According to nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics, less than $300 separates the two Democratic candidates in the entertainment industry. Obama leads with $2,956,858 in contributions, compared with Clinton’s $2,956,567.

E-mails were dispatched in the Clinton camp in recent days noting the difference. For some of the Clinton loyalists here, the number was maddening. You can barely get a steak dinner at Cut for less than $300. One member of Obama’s finance committee said, “This is wild!” (By the way, Republican Sen. John McCain has raised $530,625 from the entertainment industry in his bid for the White House, but then he doesn’t have fundraisers at Oprah Winfrey’s house.)

At the very least, the statistical dead heat between Obama and Clinton shows how deeply divided Democratic Hollywood remains in its loyalties and suggests that, whatever the outcome of the primary, the industry will be there to support the Democratic nominee after the convention.

And like with the box office, it’ll be looking at the numbers.

(Via TalkLeft: The Politics Of Crime.)

But Obama did talk about it, asking supporters to stand by him “if you understand that people really are angry, they really are fed up, some of them are really bitter, because Washington has forgotten them.”

“It’s not me who’s out of touch,” he continued. “It’s folks that think that somehow folks are happy when they’re out of a job and they lost a pension and they don’t have heath care and their schools are underfunded. I know exactly what folks are going through.”

“And,” Obama added for good measure, “I go to church.”

(Via msnbc.com.)

Yes, some Democrats in Pennsylvania’s Rust Belt communities were upset by Barack Obama’s suggestion that voters there “cling to guns or religion” because of bitterness about their economic lot. But many more seem to think it was no big deal — and if there’s a problem it’s with the political slapfest that has followed.

Obama’s comment, which the Illinois senator made during a San Francisco fundraiser last week, set off an exchange of insults between the final contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination as they vie for blue-collar support in the state’s April 22 primary. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has criticized the comment as “elitist,” while Obama has mocked the New York senator’s own recent emphasis on support for gun owners’ rights.

Full story here.

(Via Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire.)

Sen. Hillary Clinton has stalled Sen. Barack Obama’s drive in Pennsylvania and holds a 50% to 44% lead among likely primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

“There was no noticeable movement in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama’s ‘bitter’ comments.”

(Via New York Times.)

The long-running series of Democratic presidential debates resumes this week after an extended hiatus. The big question is how bitter the next chapter will be.

The two dozen televised showdowns have always given a distorted glimpse of the nomination fight, which plays out in state after state on much less visible levels. But the debates offer the clearest national focus, and that means Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton must make a decision: mount a feisty new assault on Senator Barack Obama, or present a more congenial face to the public.

Mrs. Clinton has adopted both approaches at different points in the campaign, and she could justify using either when she faces off with Mr. Obama in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, six days before the Pennsylvania primary. Even her aides made clear this weekend that they did not yet know which path she would choose.

Since Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama last debated, in Cleveland on Feb. 26, she has made little discernable progress toward her goal of scoring a come-from-behind victory in the nominating contest. She won the Texas and Ohio primaries, but has fallen farther behind in the delegate race; she trailed by 97 delegates the day of the Cleveland debate, and 140 now, by the Obama campaign’s count. And she has failed to overtake Mr. Obama in most national polls, despite a brief furor over incendiary remarks by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

As a result, Mrs. Clinton finds herself like a basketball team trailing at game’s end and having to watch precious seconds tick off the clock. That leaves some Democratic observers predicting a serene and civil performance on her part, rather than the combative approach advocated by her chief strategist, Mark Penn, before he was ousted from that post a week ago.

Full story here.

(Via Detroit Free Press.)

Puerto Rico Gov. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá tried to make his stroll through Old San Juan for an afternoon cup of coffee look casual, but the reporters and photographers following him gave it away: The U.S. commonwealth is in a political tailspin.
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A recent 27-count indictment of Acevedo and 12 allies capped three years of political turmoil, further dividing an already fractious political scene. It put the last year of Acevedo’s term in doubt, and raised questions about whether the superdelegate at the Democratic National Convention — who is a Barack Obama supporter — can be a viable candidate in November’s race for governor.

For now, the leadership of Acevedo’s Popular Democratic Party is standing behind him — and even announced a legal defense fund they hope will reach $2 million. Already, some are griping that Acevedo can’t possibly win the election. And although he said he would return to work as governor and candidate, Acevedo also suggested he would do whatever it takes for his party to win — including step aside.

For now he is back at work, announcing new infrastructure projects and meeting with the chief of police.

Full story here.

(Via Political Insider.)

It’s impossible to predict exactly how Sen. Barack Obama’s ill-timed comments about “bitter voters” in Pennsylvania and the Midwest will ultimately play out in the Democratic presidential race. The comments certainly make Obama seem elitist and distant from the daily concerns of stereotypical Midwesterners. And Sen. Hillary Clinton correctly points out that both Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry lost the last two presidential races because they were “out of touch” with concerns of “regular” voters. Undecided Democratic superdelegates must be very worried.

But Obama does have one thing going for him as he tries to weather the controversy: Clinton connects no better with your average small town, rural voter than he does. She looks absolutely ridiculous trying to become the church-going, gun-toting candidate before crucial primaries in Pennsylvania and Indiana. If she continues to push this line of attack, it’s more likely to backfire than succeed.

(Via Reuters.)

Barack Obama is gaining steadily on Hillary Clinton among Democratic superdelegates, nearly erasing her last advantage in a presidential race where those party insiders could be the ultimate kingmakers.

In a danger sign for Clinton, Obama over the past few months has sharply cut her lead among superdelegates — nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders free to back any candidate.

“Obama has won more delegates, he’s won more votes, he’s raised more money, and now you see it happening with superdelegates too,” said Simon Rosenberg, head of the Democratic advocacy group NDN.

Neither Obama nor Clinton is likely to win enough pledged delegates in state contests to clinch the hard-fought battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, leaving superdelegates to decide the race. The Democratic nominee will face Republican John McCain in the November election.

Despite heavy courting by Clinton, most of the superdelegates who made up their minds since January backed Obama. Clinton’s superdelegate lead dwindled to about 30 from 100 in that time.

A count by MSNBC gives Clinton 256 superdelegates to Obama’s 225. Obama, an Illinois senator, has gained steam in the past month, winning more than two dozen new commitments, compared with a handful for Clinton, a New York senator.

“It has been a drip, drip, drip toward Obama,” said Steven Schier, a political analyst at Carleton College in Minnesota.

“Superdelegates can see Obama’s advantages growing, and it’s pretty clear it’s going to be very hard for Clinton to catch him,” he said. “If Obama notches a few more victories, it could become a stampede.”

Full story here.

Tags: obama, clinton, primaries, super delegates